No spreadsheets, no jargon. Just the few things worth knowing about the 2026 World Cup right now — who's favoured, where our model disagrees with the bookmakers, and which matches to watch. Hover any underlined wordLike this! Tap or hover any underlined term for a plain-English explanation. for what it means.
Our model played the whole tournament out 10,000 timesWe simulate the entire 48-team World Cup ten thousand times to see how often each team lifts the trophy.. These are the favourites.
A value betA bet where our model thinks something is MORE likely to happen than the bookmaker's odds suggest. Not a guaranteed winner — just a spot where the price looks generous. is where the bookmakers' price looks generous versus our model. Here are the biggest gaps right now — explained in plain English.
The model expects a low-scoring game (under 2.5 goals total).
The model expects a low-scoring game (under 2.5 goals total).
The model expects a low-scoring game (under 2.5 goals total).
The model expects an open, high-scoring game (over 2.5 goals total).
The model makes Algeria clear favourites to beat Jordan.
What our model expects from the next batch of fixtures.