♚ 2026 World Cup · opens June 11

WORLD CUP MODEL

Our Dixon-Coles match model — results, recent xG and squad strength — simulated through the full 48-team bracket 10,000 times.

Title Odds all futures → bracket →

TeamModelFairMarket

1

18.7%

5.4

11.0

2

16.9%

5.9

6.0

3

15.1%

6.6

11.0

4

9.7%

10.3

8.2

5

8.8%

11.4

6.2

6

7.7%

13.0

11.5

7

5.5%

18.3

17.5

8

4.2%

23.6

50.0

9

2.8%

35.7

23.0

10

2.1%

48.1

46.0

11

1.6%

62.5

70.0

12

1.4%

69.9

100.0

Groups full tables & fixtures →

Group A

TeamAdvanceWin grp

87%

41%

82%

32%

74%

22%

32%

5%

Group B

TeamAdvanceWin grp

98%

70%

86%

22%

Bosnia & Herzegovina

61%

7%

23%

1%

Group C

TeamAdvanceWin grp

100%

77%

95%

19%

69%

3%

5%

0%

Group D

TeamAdvanceWin grp

79%

36%

75%

29%

61%

17%

60%

17%

Group E

TeamAdvanceWin grp

100%

70%

95%

21%

85%

9%

2%

0%

Group F

TeamAdvanceWin grp

92%

55%

76%

23%

63%

15%

41%

6%

Group G

TeamAdvanceWin grp

97%

70%

77%

17%

64%

10%

28%

2%

Group H

TeamAdvanceWin grp

100%

81%

94%

18%

27%

0%

21%

0%

Group I

TeamAdvanceWin grp

98%

65%

88%

20%

80%

14%

9%

0%

Group J

TeamAdvanceWin grp

100%

81%

87%

13%

76%

7%

8%

0%

Group K

TeamAdvanceWin grp

98%

57%

96%

40%

36%

2%

25%

1%

Group L

TeamAdvanceWin grp

99%

73%

95%

26%

38%

1%

20%

0%

Group-stage advance & win-group are exact; title/knockout odds use a strength-seeded bracket pending the official slot map. Ratings as of 2026-06-01. Methodology.

For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Please bet responsibly. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works →