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♚ 2026 World Cup · complete · Spain champions

WORLD CUP MODEL

What our model said before a ball was kicked: the full 48-team bracket simulated 10,000 times. The tournament finished on 2026-07-19 and Spain won it. Final tables are on Groups, every knockout tie on the bracket, and the live club season on Matches.

Pre-tournament title odds all futures → bracket →

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What our model said before a ball was kicked: the full 48-team bracket simulated 10,000 times. The tournament finished on 2026-07-19 and Spain won it. Final tables are on Groups, every knockout tie on the bracket, and the live club season on Matches.

Pre-tournament Golden Boot projection all scorers → leaderboard →

PlayerRecent majorsProj
1
Harry Kane England
17G in 25 caps
5.41
2
Lionel Messi Argentina
11G in 16 caps
5.29
3
Kylian Mbappé France
14G in 23 caps
5.24
4
Cristiano Ronaldo Portugal
12G in 18 caps
3.32
5
Julián Alvarez Argentina
7G in 12 caps
2.92
6
Romelu Lukaku Belgium
8G in 17 caps
2.77
7
Kai Havertz Germany
6G in 11 caps
2.73
8
Mikel Oyarzabal Spain
3G in 13 caps
2.71
9
Luis Díaz Colombia
4G in 12 caps
2.60
10
Luis Suárez Colombia
4G in 12 caps
2.60

Pre-tournament group projections full tables & fixtures →

Group A
TeamAdvanceWin grp
Mexico
88%
45%
Group B
TeamAdvanceWin grp
Canada
88%
25%
Qatar
19%
1%
Group C
TeamAdvanceWin grp
Brazil
100%
76%
Morocco
95%
20%
Haiti
5%
0%
Group D
TeamAdvanceWin grp
USA
73%
29%
Turkey
73%
29%
Australia
67%
22%
Paraguay
61%
19%
Group E
TeamAdvanceWin grp
Germany
100%
70%
Ecuador
94%
19%
Group F
TeamAdvanceWin grp
Japan
80%
23%
Sweden
67%
13%
Tunisia
27%
3%
Group G
TeamAdvanceWin grp
Belgium
98%
73%
Egypt
79%
15%
Iran
74%
11%
Group H
TeamAdvanceWin grp
Spain
100%
80%
Uruguay
91%
18%
Group I
TeamAdvanceWin grp
France
99%
63%
Norway
90%
21%
Senegal
84%
16%
Iraq
5%
0%
Group J
TeamAdvanceWin grp
Argentina
100%
77%
Austria
86%
13%
Algeria
81%
10%
Jordan
6%
0%
Group K
TeamAdvanceWin grp
Portugal
98%
56%
Colombia
95%
39%
Group L
TeamAdvanceWin grp
England
99%
74%
Croatia
93%
24%
Ghana
41%
2%
Panama
18%
1%
Archived: every number on this page is the pre-tournament model, ratings as of 2026-08-26. 104 of 104 fixtures have been played. Results live on Groups and the bracket. Methodology.
For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Please bet responsibly. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works →